國(guó)內(nèi)順酐市場(chǎng)維持在上行通道，而支撐此輪上漲行情的主要因素是臺(tái)風(fēng)來(lái)襲影響物流運(yùn)輸，主產(chǎn)區(qū)集中檢修，以及成本面壓力，等等，而在順酐運(yùn)行六千上方之后，市場(chǎng)對(duì)于順酐繼續(xù)沖高存有疑慮，但是順酐的逆襲之路依然在繼續(xù)。
The domestic maleic anhydride market maintains in the upward channel, and the main factors supporting this round of rising market are typhoon, impact on logistics and transportation, centralized maintenance in main production areas, and cost pressure, etc. However, after maleic anhydride has run above 6000, the market has doubts about maleic anhydride continuing to rise, but the counter attack road of maleic anhydride is still continuing.
不可否認(rèn)，順酐基本面的支撐力度有限，隨著主力工廠的恢復(fù)供貨，以及供需分歧的現(xiàn)狀依舊維持等利空消息面抑制，順酐持續(xù)上漲條件并不充分，但是20日苯法原料粗苯飆漲500元/噸，極大刺激順酐市場(chǎng)，尤其是苯法順酐工廠成本壓力繼續(xù)凸顯，當(dāng)前山西地區(qū)苯法順酐成本線已經(jīng)6300元/噸，而河北地區(qū)苯法順酐成本線已經(jīng)高6600元/噸以上，因此在缺乏利好消息提振的順酐市場(chǎng)，在此消息帶動(dòng)下不排除仍有走高機(jī)會(huì)。
It is undeniable that the support of maleic anhydride fundamentals is limited. With the resumption of supply of main factories and the status quo of supply and demand differences still maintained, the conditions for continuous increase of maleic anhydride are not sufficient. However, crude benzene, raw material of benzene process, soared by 500 yuan / T on the 20th, which greatly stimulated the maleic anhydride market, especially the cost pressure of benzene process maleic anhydride plant continued to highlight. At present, benzene process in Shanxi Province is under pressure The cost line of maleic anhydride has reached 6300 yuan / ton, while the cost line of benzene process maleic anhydride in Hebei has reached more than 6600 yuan / ton. Therefore, in the absence of good news to boost the maleic anhydride market, it is not ruled out that there are still opportunities to go up.
但是，對(duì)于基本面表現(xiàn)仍不牢靠的順酐市場(chǎng)，續(xù)漲仍存阻力。
However, for the maleic anhydride market whose fundamental performance is still not reliable, there is still resistance to continue to rise.
一方面，供應(yīng)面，隨著山東及河南地區(qū)供應(yīng)量的恢復(fù)，尤其是25日前后除去盛源2.5萬(wàn)噸裝置，新疆2萬(wàn)噸裝置依舊處于檢修狀態(tài)，其余均將恢復(fù)運(yùn)行，屆時(shí)丁烷法供應(yīng)量將有所提升，供應(yīng)面相對(duì)充足。
On the one hand, with the recovery of the supply in Shandong and Henan, especially in the 25 days before and after the removal of Shengyuan 25000 ton unit, Xinjiang 20000 ton unit is still in maintenance status, and the rest will resume operation. At that time, the butane process supply will be improved and the supply side will be relatively adequate.
二方面，需求面，下游樹(shù)脂開(kāi)工率變化不大，依舊維持在低位負(fù)荷，9月份因來(lái)自于國(guó)慶前安監(jiān)的壓力，因此預(yù)期開(kāi)工率提升有限，另外當(dāng)前樹(shù)脂原料苯乙烯，苯酐，順酐均有走高，樹(shù)脂成本面壓力限制采購(gòu)表現(xiàn)。
On the other hand, on the demand side, the operating rate of downstream resins has not changed much and remains at a low load. Due to the pressure from environmental protection and safety supervision before National Day in September, the expected operating rate is limited. In addition, the current resin raw materials styrene, phthalic anhydride and maleic anhydride are all on the rise, and the pressure of resin cost limits the purchasing performance.
但是上述兩方面消息有利也有弊，雖然一定程度上令順酐續(xù)漲阻力，但另外則是因順酐工廠多數(shù)持倉(cāng)壓力不大，且下游樹(shù)脂工廠及貿(mào)易商當(dāng)前原料庫(kù)存低位，等令市場(chǎng)仍有剛需采購(gòu)量存在，因此對(duì)于當(dāng)前順酐有所支撐，暫走弱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)小。
However, the above two aspects of news have both advantages and disadvantages. Although to a certain extent, maleic anhydride continued to rise resistance, but in addition, the majority of maleic anhydride factories have little position pressure, and the current raw material inventory of downstream resin factories and traders is low, which makes the market still have a demand for procurement. Therefore, the current price of maleic anhydride is supported, and the risk of temporary weakening is small.
因此整體來(lái)看，順酐市場(chǎng)仍有苯法成本壓力支撐短時(shí)不排除工廠仍有沖高跡象，但是需求面仍是方向的主導(dǎo)因素之一，因樹(shù)脂原料成本也偏高，因此恐限制樹(shù)脂對(duì)高價(jià)原料接貨興趣，后續(xù)順酐漲幅也將收窄。
Therefore, on the whole, the maleic anhydride market is still supported by the benzene process cost pressure, and it is not ruled out that the factories still have high signs in a short time, but the demand side is still one of the leading factors in the price direction. As the cost of resin raw materials is also high, it is afraid that the interest of resin in receiving high price raw materials will be restricted, and the subsequent increase of maleic anhydride will also be narrowed.
